Arsenal 0 - 1 Newcastle United: Srsly?

Well, hey, Chelsea lost! Pic via Guardian.

Arsenal 0

Newcastle United 1: Carroll 45

After Wednesday's loss in the Ukraine, there were many who said they would rather lose that match than lose on Sunday in the league. I think everyone feels rightly distraught now that they've actually lost both. And yet again, Arsenal fails to capitalize on a Chelsea loss (though, it's probably a blessing of some sort that Arsenal does not find themselves waking up this morning eight points off the pace.)

There were two changes made from the side that beat West Ham a week ago (I'm not going to compare the side to the rotated squad that played in Donetsk mid-week.) Jack Wilshere returned to his holding role from suspension, meaning Denilson dropped to the bench. In form Theo Walcott got the start on the right wing, pushing Samir Nasri to the left, and dropping Andrei Arshavin to the bench. Robin van Persie made a surprise return to the bench after only one full training session on Friday.

Arsene Wenger blamed complacency for Arsenal's Champions League defeat this week and said in pre-match interviews that, after already losing at home to West Bromwich Albion, the team would not be caught like that again, that the lessons had been learned.

It didn't look like it. This was, for sure, Arsenal's worst performance of the season, and I'm hard pressed to think of any performances at home that were as poor as this from last season. Now, I'm running too late this morning to wax poetic on this disaster, so here are the dirty details of this one in bullet point fashion:

• It is apparent to me that Cesc Fabregas is still injured, at least enough to make him completely ineffective. The offense cannot run if your playmaking attacking midfielder is struggling to complete passes. An uncharacteristically high 16 of his 60 passes were unsuccessful. It's even more worrying to me that Samir Nasri picked up a knock, too.

• Newcastle's goal came courtesy the Lukasz Fabianski we're more used to. Wenger blamed "over confidence" on his coming out for a ball on which he did not have to, which is kind of a laughable excuse. What really happened was Fabianski hesitated, jumped late, and even more inexplicably, he jumped behind the attacker, Andy Carroll, who had already been lost by Chamakh marking him. 100% on the Pole, probably for the first time in his recent run in the side. So, let's buy in January, okay?

• In two of the last three home league matches, Arsenal have conceded a goal on their opposition's first legitimate chance on goal. Birmingham City and Newcastle United both opened the scoring with their first shots on target.

• Wenger made his substitutions earlier than normal, in desperate times down a goal, with the first two coming before the hour mark. Andrei Arshavin did essentially nothing, while Robin van Persie was clearly not ready to play 35 minutes. So, even though the changes were made early, they didn't work.

• I don't see why Jack Wilshere was removed at 73 minutes for Nicklas Bendtner. Wilshere is a work horse and can always give you 90 solid minutes. Why one of Arsenal's better players on the pitch was removed baffles me, aside for tactical reasons which ended up failing anyway. A holding midfielder was replaced by a goal scorer while down one, I get it, but the result was an increasing inability to win the ball in the midfield to get it to the goal scorer anyway. Of course, tactically speaking, hindsight is 20/20.

• Laurent Koscielny's red card, which he picked up for a professional foul, will likely be appealed. The foul was called by the linesman, in such a position where Mike Dean was forced to show red. The appeal needs to prove that it should not have been a foul in the first place, as I don't think we're going to get around Koscielny being the last defender and the attacker being through on goal. Wenger claims that Squillaci was covering, but I didn't think so at the time. As soon as the whistle blew, I knew it was red.

• Arsenal's league form at home: Two losses, two unconvincing wins, and two convincing wins that were aided by their opposition ending the match with ten men.

Okay, there's no time to dwell and sulk about this one, as Arsenal travels to Wolves on Wednesday for their first midweek league fixture of the season. Let's hope some consistency and focus makes the trip, too.

Hipster Gooner Man of the Match: Cheick Tioté, who outplayed Fabregas in the midfield.

Fixture Congestion or: Why It's Crucial to Win on Wednesday

Click to enlarge. Red fixtures are at home, blue fixtures away.
Update: The Wigan Carling Cup fixture was moved to Tues, Nov. 30 after this post's publication.

Arsenal travels about 1700 miles east to Donetsk in the Ukraine this week to play their fourth Champions League group match, having already picked up three wins in three matches thus far. A win would mean many things for the Gunners: they would most importantly be six points clear of both Shakhtar Donetsk and Braga (if the Portuguese side also wins) with two matches to play, ensuring not just qualification to the knockout phase, but essentially winning the group as well. It would also mean less pressure on their remaining group fixtures, which is crucial given the layout of Arsenal's fixtures this month.

If Arsenal wins on Wednesday, they would have 12 points from four matches with two to play in the group phase. In terms of tie-breakers, the first is head-to-head and the second is goal difference. Braga can finish with no more than 12 points and Shakhtar would finish with no more than 12 if this scenario plays out. Arsenal would have the tie-breaker over the Ukrainian side, having beaten them twice. If Braga finishes with 12 and even with Arsenal, that means the Gunners would have lost in Portugal on the 23rd, splitting the points in two matches. But, Arsenal has a +19 difference compared to Braga in the second tie-breaker at the moment.

So, an Arsenal win on Wednesday almost certainly ensures winning the group regardless of what Braga or Shakhtar ends up doing down the line (unless Arsenal starts losing by ten) and 100% seals the deal if Braga drops points in Belgrade. This is crucial, because Arsenal has a tricky run of fixtures in the league towards the end of November.

Arsenal's trip to Braga is on a Tuesday night, three days after what will be an intense home fixture against rivals Tottenham Hotspur and four days before an always tough trip to Birmingham to play Aston Villa. These two league fixtures follow tricky road trips to Wolves (where Manchester City lost on Saturday) and Everton.

The next four weeks will see Arsenal play seven times; the next five weeks see Arsenal play nine times. Among their next six league fixtures, the Gunners took 16 points out of the possible 18 the last time they were played (five last year and Newcastle two years ago.) This doesn't mean they're not tricky. Mid-table Fulham at home in early December might actually be the easiest of the six; Wolves away would be second easiest because it comes just three days after another match. Of course, as we've learned over the past few seasons, no fixture is easy.

The two week span which sees a midweek trip to Braga in the middle will be crucial to Arsenal's season. Chelsea during the same time has Sunderland at home, Birmingham away, and Newcastle away. While Arsenal has Everton away, Spurs home, and Villa away. Since one cannot count on Chelsea dropping points often, Arsenal can't take their foot off the accelerator. The Gunners have already lost at home to West Brom, they can't start dropping points elsewhere too.

The best way to make sure Arsenal will be fully devoted to league play through what is always a difficult month (they lost twice in November last year and three times two years ago) is to reduce the importance of that mid-month trip to Portugal by taking all three points on Wednesday.