Fixture Congestion or: Why It's Crucial to Win on Wednesday

Click to enlarge. Red fixtures are at home, blue fixtures away.
Update: The Wigan Carling Cup fixture was moved to Tues, Nov. 30 after this post's publication.

Arsenal travels about 1700 miles east to Donetsk in the Ukraine this week to play their fourth Champions League group match, having already picked up three wins in three matches thus far. A win would mean many things for the Gunners: they would most importantly be six points clear of both Shakhtar Donetsk and Braga (if the Portuguese side also wins) with two matches to play, ensuring not just qualification to the knockout phase, but essentially winning the group as well. It would also mean less pressure on their remaining group fixtures, which is crucial given the layout of Arsenal's fixtures this month.

If Arsenal wins on Wednesday, they would have 12 points from four matches with two to play in the group phase. In terms of tie-breakers, the first is head-to-head and the second is goal difference. Braga can finish with no more than 12 points and Shakhtar would finish with no more than 12 if this scenario plays out. Arsenal would have the tie-breaker over the Ukrainian side, having beaten them twice. If Braga finishes with 12 and even with Arsenal, that means the Gunners would have lost in Portugal on the 23rd, splitting the points in two matches. But, Arsenal has a +19 difference compared to Braga in the second tie-breaker at the moment.

So, an Arsenal win on Wednesday almost certainly ensures winning the group regardless of what Braga or Shakhtar ends up doing down the line (unless Arsenal starts losing by ten) and 100% seals the deal if Braga drops points in Belgrade. This is crucial, because Arsenal has a tricky run of fixtures in the league towards the end of November.

Arsenal's trip to Braga is on a Tuesday night, three days after what will be an intense home fixture against rivals Tottenham Hotspur and four days before an always tough trip to Birmingham to play Aston Villa. These two league fixtures follow tricky road trips to Wolves (where Manchester City lost on Saturday) and Everton.

The next four weeks will see Arsenal play seven times; the next five weeks see Arsenal play nine times. Among their next six league fixtures, the Gunners took 16 points out of the possible 18 the last time they were played (five last year and Newcastle two years ago.) This doesn't mean they're not tricky. Mid-table Fulham at home in early December might actually be the easiest of the six; Wolves away would be second easiest because it comes just three days after another match. Of course, as we've learned over the past few seasons, no fixture is easy.

The two week span which sees a midweek trip to Braga in the middle will be crucial to Arsenal's season. Chelsea during the same time has Sunderland at home, Birmingham away, and Newcastle away. While Arsenal has Everton away, Spurs home, and Villa away. Since one cannot count on Chelsea dropping points often, Arsenal can't take their foot off the accelerator. The Gunners have already lost at home to West Brom, they can't start dropping points elsewhere too.

The best way to make sure Arsenal will be fully devoted to league play through what is always a difficult month (they lost twice in November last year and three times two years ago) is to reduce the importance of that mid-month trip to Portugal by taking all three points on Wednesday.