Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Preview: Leeds United v. Arsenal, FA Cup 3rd Round Replay

Wojciech Szczesny will make his fourth straight start. Pic via Daily Mail.

Elland Road, Leeds
Wednesday, January 19
8:00 p.m. GMT, 3:00 p.m. EST
  • Referee: Mike Dean
  • Original Tie: Arsenal 1 - 1 Leeds United
  • All-Time in All Competitions: 44 Arsenal wins, 41 Leeds wins, 32 draws
  • All-Time in FA Cup: 5 Arsenal wins, 2 Leeds wins, 7 draws
  • Arsenal's Premier League Form: L-W-D-W-D-W
  • Leeds's Championship Form: W-D-D-D-L-W
  • Winner in 4th Rd.: v. Huddersfield Town on Sunday, January 30 (Noon GMT, 7:00 a.m. Eastern)
Rotation?

There's such potential for changes in Arsenal's side for this match, that I'm going to tackle this position-by-position, instead of going with the normal predicted line-up format:

Goalkeeper: Lukasz Fabianski suffered a set back in recovery from his shoulder injury, so Wojciech Szczesny will continue to deputize. Fabianski is not expected to be back until after the Carling Cup second leg with Ipswich, so he'll be back for the fourth round of the FA Cup at the earliest (should Arsenal win this match.) With Manuel Almunia still out, James Shea will remain on the bench. There's been a lot of media talk about how Szczesny will handle a sell-out crowd at Elland Road, which is only of concern if you forget that he was fine at Old Trafford last month.

Defense: Bacary Sagna returns from his three match ban, so I expect he'll start as Emmanuel Eboue will need a break. Sebastien Squillaci's return won't be until February and Thomas Vermaelen is undergoing a procedure on his Achilles that has put a 4-6 week timetable on his return, so Arsene Wenger's hands are tied at center back again: Laurent Koscielny and Johan Djourou will start. Maybe there'll be some rotation at left back as we could see Kieran Gibbs start over Gael Clichy.

Holding Midfield: Aaron Ramsey will return to the bench for this match, but I again don't think he'll start. Ramsey would likely have seen some amount of time against Leeds or against Ipswich if Arsenal were winning at any point. Since I'd expect one of either Alex Song or Jack Wilshere to be rested (more likely Wilshere, who started both matches last week,) that unfortunately will mean a start from Denilson. Abou Diaby maintained in a French interview that he'll be fit by this weekend, but Arsene Wenger said in his press conference that he's likely out for as long as Fabianski (that is, until the end of this month.)

Attacking Midfield: Here is where the most questions about rotation lie, as all three starters (Cesc Fabregas, Samir Nasri, and Theo Walcott) could drop to the bench for rest. Tomas Rosicky could return; according to the BBC, he's been out with a virus that I don't seem to recall anybody mentioning before. Nicklas Bendtner and Andrei Arshavin could get starts as well; I'd be totally shocked should Carlos Vela enter the starting XI. Since this match is must-win to advance, the more changes that are made here, the less comfortable I'm going to feel. All three usuals won't start, but I'd prefer there only be one change at most (which, if I had to choose, would be Walcott dropping since he, like Wilshere, started both matches last week.)

Forward: Robin van Persie is finding his form, but Marouane Chamakh has not started since the original tie with Leeds last Saturday. The Moroccan came off the bench at Ipswich and did not feature at West Ham. My gut instinct is to start RVP for the must-win cup ties and maybe give Chamakh a run-out at the weekend.

Other Arsenal Notes
  • Jay Emmanuel-Thomas has been loaned to Cardiff City for the remainder of the season.
  • Arsenal's win at West Ham on Saturday was their first win in four, however, the Gunners have only lost one of their last seven in all competitions.
  • Arsene Wenger has never been bounced from the 3rd Round of the FA Cup in his career at Arsenal. Sheffield United were the last side to knock out Arsenal from this round, in 1995/96.
Leeds News and Notes
  • Luciano Becchio is a doubt, after suffering a back injury against Scunthorpe this weekend.
  • Defender George McCartney has joined Leeds on loan after the initial match, and as such, is cup tied.
  • Sanchez Watt has again been granted permission to play against his parent club.
  • Leeds's 4-0 win over Scunthorpe at the weekend was their first win in six.
  • Leeds have not lost at Elland Road since late October and are unbeaten in seven home matches.
Match Facts
  • Arsenal has required at least one replay at some point during their path to each of their 10 FA Cup titles.
  • Arsenal had won three straight against Leeds before the 1-1 draw at the Emirates. Leeds's last win over Arsenal was 3-2 at Highbury in 2003.
  • This is the eighth FA Cup tie between the two sides; Arsenal has won five of them.
The Referee
  • The referee is Wirral-based Mike Dean.
  • Over this season and last season, Arsenal has not won any of the six matches of which Dean has taken charge.
  • Arsenal have not scored in a match worked by Dean since Cesc Fabregas's 7th minute goal at Burnley in what was eventually a 1-1 draw. Their opposition has kept a clean sheet in the last four. Excluding injury time, Arsenal has not scored in 443 minutes of playing time while Mike Dean is the head official.
  • This is Dean's first Leeds match since a 1-1 draw with Luton Town in 2007/08.
Other Third Round Replays
  • Tuesday: Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Doncaster Rovers; Molineux, Wolverhampton
  • Tuesday: Manchester City v. Leicester City; City of Manchester Stadium, Manchester
  • Tuesday: Cardiff City v. Stoke City; Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

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